Thursday, January 27, 2011

Is Egypt Ready for Democracy?

Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei is returning to Egypt to participate in anti-government protests. ElBaradei is quoted by Time as saying:

"The priority for me is to -- is to shift Egypt into a democracy, is to catch up with the 21st century, to get Egypt to be a modern and moderate society and respecting human rights, respecting the basic freedoms of the people."

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/01/27/egypt.elbaradei.protests/index.html?hpt=T2

But is Egypt ready for democracy? Consider the following statistics:

Population: Some 80 million
Annual population growth: Some 2%
Illiteracy: 17 million adult Egyptians can't read or write
Unemployment: Some 9.4%

Mohamed ElBaradei is a brave man facing what might prove insurmountable obstacles, and who is also caught between the desire of 82-year-old Hosni Mubarak to install his son, Gamal, as Egypt's next president, and the repressive theological designs of the Muslim Brotherhood. Let's see what happens on Friday.

3 comments:

  1. Jeffrey,

    What has to happen on Friday?
    I feel sorry for ElBaradei and Egypt. They will elect Muslim Brotherhood democratically, I afraid.

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  2. it would appear that Hamas and Hezbollah (Mubarak has imprisoned dozens from Hezbollah) are busy in the Sinai "protesting" with live ammo near Suez City and Port Said.

    There is no way the EU, China, or the US will allow the Suez Canal to fall into Islamist control, not even a tame MB.

    Maybe the Saudis will buy the Sinai and Suez Canal from Egypt, with the proceeds used to improve economic opportunities in Egypt.

    My bet is a military light-touch coup - like Musharaff in Pakistan, or what used to happen in Turkey.

    Tunisia has the best mix of attributes, not least the empowerment and education of women, become a real democracy in the Arab League.

    Egypt does not have the groundwork in place, and the Suez Canal makes Egypt far more important (ok, the Strait of Sicily gives Tunisia geo-heft, but that is 90 miles wide.)

    Of late, I am not sure most of the world yearns for democracy. Most people want security and stability, and a life in their community, with access to water and electricity, and a way to pay for food and shelter. Egypt is failing on the economic issues.


    Is that a new puppy?

    K2K

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  3. Marina and K2K,

    Thanks for the comments.

    Yes, this is a new puppy, which my youngest child found abandoned near our home, hungry, tired and covered with fleas.

    Winnie takes pride in wrecking havoc upon my office when I step away for even a minute. Notwithstanding the destruction, thus far, of one chair and one telephone, we are all crazy about her.

    ReplyDelete